Evolutionary adaptation to global change reduces sustainable fisheries yields.

Abstract

Global warming is altering the fisheries that underpin food security, but projections of these impacts generally exclude evolutionary processes. We describe a model that forecasts how fish will adapt to future climates and the consequences of that evolution for fisheries yields. We predict that fish in warmer waters will grow faster but evolve earlier maturation, decreasing their maximum size. We predict that evolution ameliorates the impacts of climate change on fish fitness but exacerbates its impacts on fisheries yields-worsening losses by ~50%. Excluding evolution overestimates future yields under all emissions scenarios, but evolution's impacts are greatest under the most extreme scenarios. All life histories may evolve in response to global change-this evolution should be considered in projections of ecosystems and their services.