Global record-shattering breadbasket droughts emerge from moderately extreme regional events.
basic_science · Level V
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 41844610.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1038/s41467-026-70700-z and PMC identifier 13000154.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
Simultaneous droughts across multiple maize-producing regions can strike record-shattering portions of the global maize agricultural area, threatening global food security as the system is poorly adapted to large shocks. Yet the future probability of such global droughts remains unknown. Here, we close this gap by analyzing surface soil moisture data from large ensemble climate models under future emission scenarios. During 2026-2099, the chance of at least one such event is 52% (32-80%, range across models) under an intermediate emission scenario and 60% (32-100%) under high emissions, about seven to eleven times higher than expected if there were no long-term trends in soil moisture. These elevated probabilities are primarily driven by long-term drying in Brazil, Europe, and the USA. Interestingly, global record-shattering droughts do not emerge from simultaneous regional record-shattering events, but they mostly occur when several regions simultaneously face moderately extreme droughts relative to the new climate. These results demonstrate a high potential for an upcoming global record-shattering drought in crop-producing areas, an under-recognized risk for food security.