A strong constraint on radiative forcing of well-mixed greenhouse gases.

Abstract

Radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) is a main driver of Earth's energy imbalance and global surface climate change^1,2. It remains difficult to constrain, largely because its longwave (LW) instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) component depends on atmospheric state and is subject to radiative parameterization error^3-7. The IRF measures the immediate change in radiative fluxes at the tropopause^8-10 caused by perturbations in WMGHG concentrations. Here we show that increasing WMGHG concentrations have enhanced LW IRF by 3.69 ± 0.07 W m^-2 (95% confidence interval) since 1850. We first use global line-by-line radiative transfer simulations to provide a global benchmark of LW IRF for the main WMGHGs under realistic, all-sky conditions. We then identify a robust linear relationship between LW IRF and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), enabling state-dependent LW IRF to be directly inferred from regressions against satellite-observed OLR. Furthermore, LW IRF explains 91% of the inter-model spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF, which includes rapid atmospheric adjustments beyond the IRF) for CO₂ (ref. ¹¹) across Earth system models. Benchmarking model-simulated IRF using the regression technique reveals that most discrepancies originate from radiation parameterizations and correcting LW IRF biases would reduce uncertainty in CO₂ ERF by 50%. Our results establish a simple and robust framework for quantifying state-dependent radiative forcing of WMGHGs, providing an observation-informed pathway for future climate assessments.