Distribution disparities among medical specialists in Thailand: an equity analysis of the national health workforce database (2015-2024).

Abstract

Ensuring equity in medical specialist distribution is essential for achieving universal health coverage (UHC). This study explored the changes in the availability and distribution of medical specialists in Thailand from 2015 to 2024 and assessed the equity impacts on workforce. A retrospective longitudinal analysis of national administrative workforce data. Public and private hospitals across Thailand, covering 1471 facilities in 77 provinces. The primary outcomes were specialist-to-population ratios and geographical equity measured using the Gini coefficient (G), where values closer to 0 indicate greater equity. Explanatory variables included specialty type, geographical region and the timing of major workforce policies, including mandatory service and specialty-specific legislative interventions. Between 2015 and 2024, the GPs and specialists in Thailand expanded significantly, with improvements in both density and distribution. The Gini coefficient for GPs showed the largest equity improvement (G=0.42 in 2015 and G=0.22 in 2024), reflecting the impact of mandatory service programme and rural recruitment programmes. Among specialists, emergency and family medicine have shown rapid growth and significant reductions in distribution inequity, reflecting the success of legislative policies. Sustainability of workforce policies was challenged by the 'leaking stock' phenomenon due to attraction of career opportunities and economic drives. Workforce targeted interventions have led to improvements in the availability and equitable distribution of GPs and medical specialists over the past decade. Further policy, such as retention incentives and assisted technology, is needed to achieve equitable distribution across all specialties, particularly in low-density fields. Thailand's experience offers the lessons for other low- and middle-income countries as the evidence-based and equity-focused workforce policies for UHC advancement.