Manufacturing Supply Chains and Imports in the ADHD Drug Shortage.

Abstract

The US has faced a nationwide shortage of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) medications since 2022, yet the underlying causes remain unclear. Public debate has largely centered on prescribing trends and Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) quotas, although evidence suggests that quotas were not binding. A sound policy response requires a clear understanding of the drivers behind the shortage. To examine descriptive evidence on the potential causes of the shortage. In this economic evaluation, we use time series data (2015-2025) from multiple sources, such as Symphony Health and the DEA's Automation of Reports and Consolidated Orders System (ARCOS) summary reports, to characterize US production, consumption, and trade of amphetamine-based and other stimulants, including manufacturer-level production volumes, before and during the shortage period. The sharp, simultaneous production cutbacks across several medium-sized and smaller manufacturers in late 2022 and early 2023 coincided with a steep contraction in US imports of raw amphetamines and more modest declines in phenylacetone, a key precursor. These patterns align with manufacturers' reports to the US Food and Drug Administration citing a shortage of the active ingredient as the cause of backorders. More broadly, this economic evaluation reframes the discussion of ADHD medication shortages beyond DEA quotas, highlighting the vulnerability of US pharmaceutical manufacturing to international supply chain disruptions and underscoring the need for policies that strengthen supply chain resilience.