Machine learning predicts sepsis deterioration trajectories.

Abstract

Sepsis has heterogeneous clinical trajectories, but conventional severity scores offer only static risk estimates. Timely, dynamic prediction could enable personalized intervention. In this multicenter retrospective study of 47,936 ICU patients meeting Sepsis-3 criteria from one institutional and two public datasets (MIMIC-III, eICU; sensitivity in MIMIC-IV), group-based trajectory modeling identified latent recovery patterns. An ensemble machine-learning model incorporating dynamic physiological variability was trained, temporally validated, and externally tested; clinical impact was assessed following implementation. Three trajectories emerged: rapid recovery (41.5%), slow recovery (36.4%), and clinical deterioration (22.1%). In the final binary classification task, AUROC was 0.92 (development), 0.89 (internal), 0.84 (MIMIC-III) and 0.77 (eICU); median warning time before deterioration was 17.6 h (Overall pooled across all cohorts). Reduced heart rate variability (SD < 10 bpm) predicted mortality (adjusted HR 2.17). Implementation reduced ICU stay by 1.8 days, machanical ventilation by 2.3 days, and 28-day mortality by 5.7%. This externally validated trajectory-based model offers accurate, early risk stratification for sepsis, supporting proactive, individualized critical care.