The potential role of truck-hailing and operational efficiency improvement in China's road freight decarbonization.

Xu, Xun; Ou, Shiqi; Peng, Tianduo; Lin, Zhenhong; Ou, Xunmin; Xu, Zhandong; Gan, Mi; Li, Dandan et al. · Nat Commun · 2026

other · Level V

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Abstract

Truck-hailing is an emerging business model that could potentially transform the road freight sector. As a new form of horizontal collaborative transport, it offers great potential to improve operational efficiency-an important yet underrepresented demand-side strategy in current transport decarbonization research. Drawing on a proprietary national truck-hailing dataset (N = 51,021) and an enhanced vehicle fleet model that incorporates operational factors, here we assess the potential carbon emission impacts of truck-hailing and operational efficiency improvements in China under multiple scenarios. Under medium projections, enhancements in load factor and reductions in empty running could cut China's road freight emissions by 886-2203 Mt (9%-24%) in the near term (2020-2035) and 2504-3327 Mt (23%-31%) in the long term (2035-2060), compared to a business-as-usual pathway. However, capacity constraints of zero-emission vehicles may reduce these benefits, resulting in roughly 3% higher emissions in the near term and nearly 10% in the long term.