Abortion Bans and Maternal, Pregnancy-Related, and Pregnancy-Associated Mortality in 14 US States, 2016-2023: Estimated Impacts Amid Substantial Measurement Challenges.

Abstract

<b>Objectives.</b> To examine the association of abortion bans with changes in maternal, pregnancy-related, and pregnancy-associated mortality. <b>Methods.</b> Using national vital statistics data (2016-2023), we used a Bayesian panel model to examine maternal, pregnancy-related, and pregnancy-associated mortality in 14 US states that implemented abortion bans by the end of 2022. Models accounted for temporal trends and state-specific factors. <b>Results.</b> Among the 14 states with abortion bans, there was some evidence of a potential 9.2% (95% credible interval [CI] = -1.6, 20.7) increase in the number of pregnancy-associated deaths above expectation, equivalent to 68 (95% CI = -13, 147) excess deaths; the rate was also higher than expected, with 3.3 (95% CI = -2.6, 9.0) additional deaths per 100 000 live births. Relative changes in pregnancy-related mortality were similar in magnitude but had greater uncertainty. There was no detectable increase in maternal mortality. <b>Conclusions.</b> Abortion bans may be associated with an increase in pregnancy-associated and pregnancy-related mortality, although data limitations and chance variation in these rare outcomes constrain the certainty of these and other findings. (<i>Am J Public Health</i>. 2026;116(6):819-828. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2026.308465).