A simulation study of a long-term neurodevelopmental care pathway for children with congenital heart disease.

Abstract

Ongoing neurodevelopmental care is essential for children with congenital heart disease (CHD). Understanding delivery and uptake of neurodevelopmental care pathways can inform implementation and resource planning. This study applied simulation modelling to explore outcomes from a neurodevelopmental care pathway for children with CHD. The model was developed using data from a Queensland program to explore health service interactions for neurodevelopmental screening, formal assessment, and early intervention, up to five years. Modelling was intended to provide a baseline understanding of the pathway, rather than evaluating against a reference standard. Hypothetical scenarios explored how changes in screening and referrals influenced the identification of developmental concerns, and how developmental concern severity affected intervention referrals. Based on available data, 58% of the cohort remained under routine surveillance and 25% had accessed early intervention for one or more developmental delays. Scenarios defined by increased screening projected up to 55% of the cohort having a developmental concern identified during screening and 45% having a developmental delay identified following assessment. Simulation modelling was useful for understanding outcomes from a neurodevelopmental pathway and how differences in screening and assessment affected health service interactions. Findings may inform policy and resource planning for future neurodevelopmental pathways. This study shows that simulation modelling is a useful approach for evaluating a neurodevelopmental care pathway for children with CHD, to understand movement through neurodevelopmental screening, assessment, and interventions. Scenario-based modelling provides insights into factors influencing pathway engagement, contributing evidence to strengthen understanding of service gaps and areas where improvements can most effectively impact engagement and resourcing. This study identifies neurodevelopmental screening as the most influential stage impacting downstream outcomes, underscoring its importance as a strategic intervention point. This study's approach provides a general framework for evaluating similar pathways and a potential baseline for assessing future policy or service changes.