Early risk stratification for coronary artery aneurysms in Kawasaki disease: a predictive modeling approach.

Saad, Khaled; Aly, Shimaa Elwardany; Elhoufey, Amira; Hussein, Wesam M; Temsah, Mohamad-Hani; Ahmad, Ahmad Roshdy; Elfarargy, Mohamed Shawky; Mahmoud, Rasha Refaat · Pediatr Res · 2026

other · Level V

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Abstract

Medium-to-giant coronary artery aneurysms (MGCAA) are the most serious complication of Kawasaki disease. Early prediction is difficult with current risk scores lacking validation and not designed for MGCAA. A transparent model uses six clinical variables (hemoglobin, diagnosis time, mucosal changes, rash, triglycerides, neutrophil percentage), validated in two Chinese cohorts with simple recalibration for broader use. A web tool offers personalized risk assessments to guide monitoring and follow-up, supporting clinical decisions without fixed treatment thresholds.