Disease burden of asbestos-related diseases in China (1990-2023) based on GBD estimates: A call for stronger labor protection laws.

Abstract

Asbestos exposure remains a persistent occupational hazard in China, yet updated national estimates of asbestos-related diseases (ARDs) after 2019 are scarce. This study quantified long-term trends and demographic patterns of ARDs from 1990 to 2023 using Global Burden of Disease data and joinpoint regression. We analyzed incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for asbestosis and asbestos-attributable cancers (mesothelioma, tracheal/bronchus/lung cancer, laryngeal cancer, and ovarian cancer). Absolute numbers and age-standardized rates were assessed overall and stratified by sex and age. joinpoint regression identified significant temporal inflection points. The absolute burden of ARDs increased continuously from 1990 to 2023. Age-standardized prevalence and incidence rates of asbestosis peaked in 2001, while mortality and DALY rates peaked in 2004. Major turning points for asbestos-attributable cancers occurred around 2010-2011, marking historical peaks followed by declines. A modeled increase in mortality and DALYs was observed from 2020 to 2022 across nearly all ARDs. Males consistently demonstrated higher burdens than females, and older adults (≥65 years) carried the greatest burden, with a secondary mesothelioma peak at 55-59 years in males. Although ARD indicators have declined from historical peaks, a statistically modeled increase was observed in 2020-2022, warranting continued public-health attention. These findings aim to provide evidence for clinicians, epidemiologists, and policymakers to strengthen occupational disease prevention, reinforce labor protection laws, and improve asbestos-control policies in China.