Developmental constraints mediate the reversal of temperature effects on the autumn phenology of European beech after the summer solstice.

Abstract

Accurate projections of temperate tree growing seasons under climate change require representing developmental constraints that determine tree resource allocation. A phenological 'switch point' after the summer solstice (21 June) has been proposed, with pre-solstice warming advancing autumn phenology and post-solstice warming delaying it. We propose that this switch is flexible and occurs at the compensatory point between early-season development and late-season temperature effects. We performed trans-solstice climate manipulation experiments on potted European beech (<i>Fagus sylvatica</i>) saplings to test (i) how spring leaf-out timing and June-August temperatures influence end-of-season timing (bud set and leaf senescence) and (ii) whether daytime and nighttime temperatures before and after the solstice have distinct effects. Bud set and senescence were tightly coupled (<i>R²</i>=0.49), with stronger bud responses. Each day of delayed leaf-out postponed bud set by 0.24±0.06 days and senescence by 0.22±0.08 days. July full-day cooling delayed autumn phenology in late-leafing individuals (bud set +4.9±2.6 days; senescence +3.1± 2.8 days) but had a negligible impact on early-leafing trees. August full-day cooling advanced both stages. Pre-solstice daytime cooling had no effect, while post-soltice daytime cooling advanced autumn phenology. Nighttime cooling consistently delayed bud set. These findings support the Solstice-as-Phenology-Switch model and highlight the central role of developmental progression in constraining growing seasons. Faster early-season development - especially under nighttime warming - moves trees past the switch earlier, increasing sensitivity to late-season cooling and thereby triggering earlier autumn phenology. Phenology models should incorporate these developmentally-mediated and diel-specific temperature responses.