Progress toward the 2030 targets of Brazil's Strategic Action Plan for noncommunicable diseases: a time-series and projection analysis of risk factors.

Abstract

Brazil's progress toward national targets for modifiable noncommunicable diseases (NCD) risk factors remains underexplored. This study analyzed trends in NCD risk factors and projected their prevalence through 2030, assessing progress toward the Strategic Action Plan for NCDs (2021-2030). We analyzed 643,196 adults (≥18 years) from Vigitel-an annual telephone survey across the 26 Brazilian capitals and the Federal District-between 2009-2023. Prais-Winsten regression model was used to assess temporal trends and project prevalence through 2030. The 2019 survey served as baseline to evaluate progress toward Brazil's 2030 goals established in the Strategic Action Plan. Progress was quantified using the attainment score, estimating the percentage distance between projected and target values. If current trends continue, smoking will decline from 9.8% (2019) to 4.7% (2030), surpassing its reduction target by 30.1%. Regular sugar-sweetened beverage consumption will fall from 15.0% to 3.2%, exceeding the target by 162%. Binge drinking is projected to rise from 18.8% to 21.3%, deviating from its target by 133%, with sharper increases among women. Fruit and vegetable intake will increase modestly (22.9% to 24.5%), achieving only 23.3% of its target. Leisure-time physical activity will rise from 39.0% to 45.3%, meeting 53.8% of the target. Obesity (+39.4%), diabetes (+47.3%), and hypertension (+11.4%) will continue to increase. Despite progress in smoking and sugar-sweetened beverages consumption, most NCD risk factors remain off track among Brazilians living in the capitals, underscoring the need for strengthened, equity-oriented, multisectoral strategies to achieve Brazil's 2030 NCD targets. National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) and Ministry of Health of Brazil.