Driving factors in pediatric emergency department use: an ecological retrospective study.

Abstract

Pediatric emergency departments (PEDs) often face high volumes of low-acuity visits, reflecting gaps in primary care access and socio-economic disparities. We investigated how neighborhood socio-economic vulnerability, pediatrician availability, and proximity to the PED jointly influence PED utilization in Geneva, Switzerland. In this retrospective ecological study (Jan 2023-Dec 2024), we aggregated all PED visits for children aged 0-16 years by neighborhood and Canadian Triage Acuity Scale (CTAS) level. Neighborhood visit incidence (unique patients per child population) was modeled using mixed-effects regression against a composite socio-economic vulnerability index (NSVI), pediatrician density within a 2 km radius, and distance to the PED, incorporating an exponential decay function for distance and postal code as a random intercept. There were 68,482 PED visits by 35,994 children (35.1% of Geneva under-16 population). Low-acuity visits (CTAS 4-5) comprised ~50% of encounters. Both distance and socio-economic vulnerability showed clear dose-response relationships, with stronger effects observed for lower-acuity visits, and no interaction effect between them. Overall, proximity accounted for up to 20.8% of non-urgent PED use, while neighborhood socio-economic vulnerability explained up to 19.7% of low acuity visits across Geneva. Pediatrician density showed a modest inverse association for low-acuity visits only. Both proximity and socio-economic vulnerability are independent determinants of non-urgent PED use. Policies focusing only on primary care access risk missing key drivers of PED use, highlighting the need for locally tailored strategies such as community outreach near hospitals or programs to strengthen health literacy among families.