Cancer Mortality as a Proxy for Palliative Care Need in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: A 22-Year Population-Level Trend Analysis.

Abstract

Population-level data on palliative care need remain limited in many regions. Cancer mortality is commonly used as a proxy indicator of population-level palliative care demand. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have undergone rapid demographic and epidemiological transition, highlighting the need for evidence-informed planning. To examine long-term trends in cancer mortality across six GCC countries (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman) and assess implications for palliative care planning. Ecological time-trend analysis. National mortality data from six GCC countries (2000-2022). Age-standardized cancer mortality rates (ICD-10 C00-C97) were obtained from the World Health Organization Global Health Observatory. Trends were evaluated using annual percentage change estimates, segmented (joinpoint) regression, and models accounting for between-country variability. Data availability varied substantially across countries. Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar had sufficient longitudinal data and demonstrated statistically significant declines in age-standardized cancer mortality (<i>p</i> < 0.001), with the largest reduction observed in Bahrain. Nonlinear, phase-dependent trends were identified. Countries with limited data were analyzed descriptively. Cancer mortality trends in GCC countries vary according to data completeness. Declining mortality does not necessarily indicate reduced palliative care need. Cancer mortality remains a pragmatic population-level indicator for planning in settings with limited direct measures of need. Strengthening mortality surveillance and integrating palliative care into national cancer control strategies are essential.