Estimated impact of universal free school meal policies on educational outcomes in the United States.

Abstract

Universal Free School Meal (UFSM) policies aim to improve student well-being by expanding access to school meals for all children, regardless of income. While previous studies have shown that UFSM increases participation in school meal programs, evidence on educational outcomes remains limited. This study evaluated the impact of UFSM policies on chronic absenteeism, academic performance, high school graduation, and dropout rates in the US. This study leveraged a natural experiment created by the COVID pandemic and subsequent variation in state-level policy adoption. Using a difference-in-differences approach with linear mixed-effects models, school-level administrative data from more than 10,000 schools from school years 2018-19 (baseline), 2021-22 (federal UFSM), and 2022-23 (post-implementation of federal UFSM) were analyzed. Five states that adopted state-level UFSM policies were compared with six matched control states that reverted to means-tested programs. A subsample of approximately 6,500 schools that adopted the Community Eligibility Provision (CEP) after the federal UFSM policy ended was also examined. Outcomes included school meal participation, chronic absenteeism, high school graduation and dropout rates, and the percentage of students meeting or exceeding state standards in mathematics and English. At baseline, chronic absenteeism was 10% in control states and 12% in UFSM states. State-level UFSM policies increased school meal participation and reduced chronic absenteeism by 3 percentage points (%pt) [95% CI: -5;-2], with larger reductions in schools with higher proportions of Black students (-4%pt [-4;-3]). UFSM was associated with a 3%pt [1;6] improvement in English proficiency, while effects on mathematics, graduation, and dropout rates were not statistically significant. Schools adopting CEP after federal UFSM ended showed reduced absenteeism among schools with higher proportions of Black (-4%pt [-5;-4]) and White students (-3%pt [-4;-2]) but no overall improvements in test scores. UFSM policies may reduce chronic absenteeism and support post-pandemic educational recovery, particularly in schools serving more Black students.