Broadly quantifying SSP elements for 188 countries to 2150 in International Futures.
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- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 42248865.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1038/s41467-026-73836-0.
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Abstract
We extend the quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) narratives by projecting 188 socioeconomic indicators for 188 countries to 2150 using the International Futures model. The variables span demographics, conflict, economics, education, health, infrastructure, and governance using a fully integrated model. We address existing limitations related to a) misalignment between quantification and scenario narratives; b) inconsistencies driven by use of unconnected models; c) the omission of indicators; and d) absence of projections into the 22<sup>nd</sup> century. Here we show projections highly correlated with existing forecasts that also lead to lower economic growth because they are driven by broader factors including conflict, governance, infrastructure, and human development, which in turn leads to lower resource demand. We also introduce government spending measures by sector that can be used to connect the SSPs to broader theoretical understandings of future patterns of mitigation and adaptation in the face of climate change.