Projecting the incidence of burn injuries and its associated economic burden for 195 countries.

Abstract

Burn injuries remain a persistent global health burden affecting low- and middle-income countries. Projections of future incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are needed to guide prevention and resource allocation. Age-, sex-, and country-specific burn incidence and DALY rates were pulled from the Global Burden of Disease and combined with World Bank population projections for 2030, 2040, and 2050 to generate estimates by country and region. Economic burden was modeled by multiplying DALYs by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Globally, projected burn cases increase from 10,319,496 in 2030 to 10,865,524 in 2050 (+5%), while disability-adjusted life years rise from 11,517,819 to 14,144,178 (+18.6%). The burden is concentrated in South Asia, reaching 1,627,305 cases in 2050, and in Sub-Saharan Africa, which rises to 3,850,835 cases. Individuals aged 15-19 years account for the largest share of global cases in both 2030 and 2050. Among young adults and children under 19 years, India is projected to have the highest burden, with 334,168 cases in 2030. The global burden remains balanced between males and females, with women representing 52% of cases through 2050. Case-to-population ratios highlight disproportionate burdens in smaller nations, with Chad, Argentina, and Azerbaijan among the countries with the highest per-capita rates. In economic terms, the United States produces the largest cost estimate at $20.6 billion, while countries such as India ($13.2 B) and China ($14.5 B) carry substantial burdens driven by extremely high DALY counts despite moderate GDP per capita. Burn-related morbidity remains a significant global challenge, particularly in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, with children disproportionately affected. Investment in prevention and burn care is essential to reduce inequities.