Inequality in human development amplifies climate-related disaster risk.

Abstract

The impacts of climate-related disasters are shaped by the interaction between hazard intensity, exposure, and vulnerability. However, the influence of hazard intensity and within-country inequality on impact magnitudes remains poorly quantified. Here, we present a global multi-hazard study of over 7000 climate-related disasters reported by the Emergency Events Database from 1990 to 2020. Using subnational indicators, we show that human development drives major shifts in global exposure and impact patterns, with societal vulnerability outweighing hazard intensity in shaping impacts. Despite a declining share of global exposure over the past three decades, regions with low subnational Human Development Index scores experience disproportionately higher human losses across most disaster types. For instance, individuals in these regions face an 8.2-fold higher risk of fatality associated with storms (95% confidence interval: 2.16-23.06) compared to those in very high human development regions. Our findings also indicate that within-country inequality in human development exacerbates disaster risk in regions with low and medium levels of human development. These results underscore the critical role of human development in managing disaster risks and highlight the link between socioeconomic conditions and vulnerability to climate-related hazards.