Rock weathering can counteract river CO₂ emissions induced by permafrost thaw.

Abstract

Climate-induced permafrost thaw unlocks large stores of organic carbon that are mineralized and emitted as carbon dioxide (CO₂) from rivers to the atmosphere¹. Concurrently, warming and permafrost thaw can increase mineral weathering rates, thus affecting the release and sequestration of inorganic carbon^2-4. Yet how these biological and geological carbon cycles interact and jointly affect CO₂ dynamics (emission compared with drawdown) in permafrost rivers remains unknown⁵. Here we combine CO₂ emissions, organic and inorganic solute concentrations, dual carbon isotopes (δ¹³C-Δ¹⁴C) and geochemical modelling to infer how permafrost thaw may affect river biogeochemistry over decades to centuries across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Leveraging a gradient of thermal permafrost degradation, we find that river CO₂ emissions decline, whereas solute fluxes from rock weathering increase with decreasing permafrost cover. Across this region, net CO₂ drawdown fluxes from rock weathering are about 35% of river CO₂ emissions, varying from around 15% in catchments with continuous permafrost to more than 100% in catchments with discontinuous or isolated permafrost. Thus, carbon fluxes from chemical weathering may become increasingly important with ongoing permafrost thaw, potentially even outpacing river CO₂ emissions. Our findings disentangle the interplay between biological and geological carbon fluxes that are important for the cryosphere and the global carbon cycle.