Widespread controls of precipitation sensitivity on drought recovery of global forests.

Abstract

Increases in drought-induced forest mortality have raised worldwide concerns regarding forest drought recovery. Precipitation sensitivity (S_Pre), the magnitude of forest vegetation growth response to precipitation variation, is believed to strongly influence drought recovery. However, direct evidence is lacking, limiting its use in forecasting forest resilience under climate change. Using multiple remote-sensing datasets, we reveal that S_Pre is a pivotal factor shaping global forest recovery following extreme drought years, comparable to and even surpassing other well-known factors. In contrast to previous expectations, drought recovery is highest at intermediate S_Pre, and declines at lower and higher values. Over the past three decades, climate change increases S_Pre in 56% of global forests, and 30% experience S_Pre increases associated with a decline in drought recovery-particularly sub-tropical forests. Our results illuminate the widespread importance of S_Pre in global forests, and highlight incorporating S_Pre into ecological models to improve predictions of forest resilience.