Previous prescribed burns saved thousands of ancient sequoias during historically unprecedented wildfires.

Abstract

Wildfires in California's Sierra Nevada during 2020-2021 killed giant sequoias (Sequoiadendron giganteum) at rates unseen for millennia, underscoring the vulnerability of highly fire-adapted trees to ongoing environmental change. Following a century of fire exclusion and fuel accumulation, the effectiveness of prescribed burns in reducing giant sequoia mortality from wildfire remained poorly quantified. Here we estimate mortality outcomes for 26,403 giant sequoias across 19 groves in Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks following the Castle (2020) and KNP Complex (2021) wildfires using a Bayesian framework. We map tree mortality using a deep learning classifier integrating 3 m PlanetScope imagery, airborne lidar, and field observations. From an estimated 7,974 sequoia deaths (95% Bayesian credible interval (CI): 7,555-8,430), corresponding to 30.2% mortality (CI: 28.6-31.9%), we find previous prescribed burns (≤10 years prior) reduced mortality odds by 77% (CI: 69-83%), making treated trees nearly four times more likely to survive. Counterfactual simulations suggest that prescribed burns prevented at least 1,888 (CI: 1,487-2,302) deaths, and universal treatment would have saved an additional 3,888 (CI: 3,236-4,580) giant sequoias. These results show that prescribed burns substantially improve survival during extreme wildfires, offering guidance for conserving long-lived, fire-adapted forests under intensifying fire regimes.