Dynamic properties of Kermack-McKendrick-like models.
basic_science · Level V
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 42447206.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0352960 and PMC identifier 13367913.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
We rigorously analyze the dynamic properties of Kermack-McKendrick-like compartmental models for infectious diseases, extending the classical SIR framework to include exposed individuals, mild and severe infections, hospitalization, and intensive care unit (ICU) compartments. Using a 13-compartment model, we establish mathematical results on well-posedness, the basic reproduction number R0, a first integral leading to a unique final epidemic size, and the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium under permanent immunity. When temporary immunity is included, we prove the existence of an endemic equilibrium for R0 > 1. An age-stratified multi-group version of the model is also studied, demonstrating similar convergence properties and highlighting the impact of age structure on epidemic dynamics. Our results provide a rigorous mathematical framework for understanding how immunity duration, clinical progression, and age structure shape epidemic outcomes.
Medical subject headings
- Communicable Diseases
- Models, Theoretical
- Models, Biological