Quantifying UK coastal flood exposure under future sea-level rise to 2300.
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 42481471.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1038/s41467-026-74982-1.
- No licence information is recorded for this record.
- Because redistribution is not established, this page shows the abstract only. Follow the links below for the full text.
Abstract
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report highlighted the potential for more than 15 m of global sea-level rise by 2300. In this study, we explore the implications for UK coastal flood exposure by combining national-scale flood modelling with physically-based storylines of UK sea-level rise. By 2100 all storylines show broadly similar results with at least an additional 0.5 million people exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood extent, which represents a 25% increase compared to present day. Under the most pessimistic storyline by 2300 involving significant ice-sheet instability, an additional 13 million people could be exposed to the 1-in-200 year undefended flood event. This would imply the potential need for large-scale movement of populations and settlements away from the coast in the coming centuries. Given current global emissions pledges, exposure increases by 1.7 million people by 2300, however up to 1 million could be avoided if Paris Agreement targets for greenhouse gas emissions are met.