Global economic burden attributable to asthma, 2025-50: a global modelling analysis of 154 countries and territories.

Abstract

Asthma is a major chronic respiratory disease with substantial health and economic consequences worldwide; however, there is little evidence for the long-term macroeconomic effects of asthma across countries. We aimed to estimate the global economic burden attributable to asthma from 2025 to 2050 across 154 countries and territories. We estimated the long-term economic burden of asthma using a health-augmented macroeconomic model covering 154 countries and territories from 2025 to 2050. Projected labour losses were captured through reductions in the workforce due to premature death and reduced labour force participation due to disability. Physical capital accumulation was affected by asthma-related medical spending, which reduces savings and investment, measured as asthma-attributable health expenditure. In the model, this spending reduced disposable income and savings, thereby lowering investment and slowing capital accumulation over time FINDINGS: Between 2025 and 2050, our model predicted that asthma would incur costs of approximately US$863 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 615-1396; 2024 US$), corresponding to an annual gross domestic product (GDP) decline of 0·036% (0·026-0·058). The projected economic burden differed markedly across the 154 countries. The USA bore the largest burden (US$471 billion [371-655]), followed by the UK (US$45 billion [28-84]) and China (US$44 billion [27-81]). Across income groups, high-income countries accounted for the greatest absolute losses (US$712 billion [525-1105]) and highest proportional GDP losses (0·054% [0·039-0·083]), whereas low-income countries incurred absolute losses of US$5 billion (2-11). In low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), labour-related losses accounted for a larger share of total costs and declines in disease burden were slower. Our findings suggest that asthma imposes a substantial and uneven macroeconomic burden across countries, with differences by income level and region. Productivity reductions dominate in LMICs, whereas physical capital-related effects are more important in high-income settings. Improving asthma prevention and control could yield economic gain. Noncommunicable Chronic Diseases-National Science and Technology Major Project; Non-profit Central Research Institute Fund of Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences; European Commission Horizon Europe.