Trends and projections of IHD burden attributable to dietary high sodium and kidney dysfunction in G20 countries, 1990-2050.

Abstract

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is a major cause of death and disability, is consistent with modifiable factors like poor diet, inactivity, and smoking, as well as non-modifiable ones such as age and genetics. A diet high in sodium (DHIS) and kidney dysfunction (KD) significantly contribute to IHD by increasing blood pressure and promoting vascular damage. This study examines IHD burden due to DHIS and KD in G20 countries from 1990 to 2021, highlighting disparities and the need for targeted public health interventions. The findings aim to guide effective policies and improve cardiovascular health outcomes globally. This study uses data from the GBD 2021 database to analyze the global burden of IHD attributable to DHIS and KD in 1990 and 2021. Descriptive analysis examines the distribution of IHD across genders, age groups, regions, and countries, using age-standardized rates (ASR) and uncertainty intervals. Trend analysis calculates the annual percentage change (EAPC) in IHD-related mortality and disability. Decomposition analysis evaluates the contributions of age structure, population growth, and epidemiologic changes. Forecasting is done through the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing (ES) models, with Bayesian age-period-cohort models projecting future IHD burdens through 2050. In 2021, IHD attributable to DHIS and KD caused significant disease burden in G20 countries. Deaths and DALYs due to IHD attributable to DHIS increased by 83.8% and 71.4%, respectively, while those attributable to KD rose by 61.8% and 52.3% from 1990 to 2021. Despite declines in age-standardized mortality and DALY rates, regional and sex disparities persisted, with higher burdens in males and low-SDI regions. Ageing and population growth were primary drivers of increased deaths and DALYs. Projections indicate rising deaths and DALYs, but continued declines in age-standardized rates by 2050 under ARIMA and ES models. This study highlights the urgent need for targeted interventions to address the growing IHD burden attributable to DHIS and KD in G20 nations, emphasizing primary prevention, equitable healthcare, and tailored strategies to mitigate future cardiovascular risks effectively.