Differential Effects of US State Firearm Policies on Black and Non-Black Firearm Homicide and Suicide, 1981‒2022.

Abstract

<b>Objectives.</b> To estimate the effects of 7 state firearm policies on yearly rates of firearm mortality (homicide and suicide) among racial demographic groups. <b>Methods.</b> We studied yearly firearm homicide and suicide counts by race for all US states from 1981 to 2022 via de-biased, autoregressive, Bayesian negative binomial models. <b>Results.</b> Permissive policies were associated with 1.97 more homicides (86% posterior probability of increased mortality; 80% credible interval [CrI] = -0.31, 4.38) and 0.32 more suicides (93% probability of increase; 80% CrI = 0.04, 0.58) per 100 000 Black population. Restrictive policies were associated with 0.51 fewer Black suicides per 100 000 (> 99% probability of decrease; 80% CrI = -0.71, -0.31). Policies had similar rate-ratio effects in both groups, but they shifted absolute homicide risk more for Black (and suicide more for non-Black) populations because of differing absolute rates: per 100 000, permissive laws were associated with 1.81 more Black homicides than non-Black (85% probability higher), and restrictive laws with reductions of 0.70 fewer Black suicides than non-Black (> 99% probability smaller). <b>Conclusions.</b> Harms and benefits of firearm policies on firearm homicide have accrued more to Black populations than to non-Black ones, with the opposite true for firearm suicide. (<i>Am J Public Health</i>. Published online ahead of print August 13, 2026:e1-e9. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2026.308523).