Disease Burden Attributable to Six Occupational Risk Factors in China, 1990-2035: A Quantitative Assessment and Future Projection.

Abstract

To evaluate the temporal trends and future burden of six occupational risk factors in China from 1990 to 2035. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Age-standardized rates, age-period-cohort analysis, and Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to assess trends and project disease burden. In 2021, six occupational risk factors accounted for 17.90 million disability-adjusted life years in China. The age-standardized rate declined by 58.8%, from 2,362.18 in 1990 to 974.00 per 100,000 population in 2021. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, low back pain, and age-related and other hearing loss accounted for 59.5% of the burden. Age-standardized rates attributable to occupational asthmagens and carcinogens were projected to increase through 2035, particularly among women. Although China has substantially reduced occupational disease burden, chronic conditions and vulnerable populations require greater attention through targeted strategies.