Modeling the effects of climate risk on primates globally: New perspectives on conservation priorities.

Abstract

Rapid climate change poses a severe threat to biodiversity, and phylogenetic diversity-a key metric capturing evolutionary uniqueness and adaptive potential-is critical for conservation. Integrating a well-resolved phylogenetic tree of 424 primate species, we combined spatial analysis and climate risk modeling to explore global spatiotemporal patterns of primates and assess their vulnerability under future climate scenarios. The results suggest a pronounced latitudinal pattern in primate distribution, with isothermality and annual mean precipitation as key drivers. Primate species in the American tropics (Mexico, Central, and South America) and southern China showed later divergence times and lower phylogenetic diversity, emerging as neo-hotspots for primates. Under future climate change, species in these neo-hotspots will face higher climate risks than those in paleo-hotspots of primate diversity. In addition, high human pressure, high climate risk, and limited protected area coverage increase species and population survival risks in hotspot regions. Overall, this global study deepens our understanding of biodiversity conservation under current climate change scenarios and synergistically advances the preservation of numerous natural services essential to ecosystem health and human well-being. Our study provides a spatially explicit framework to fulfill Targets 3 and 8 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.