Temporal changes in pediatric tuberculosis incidence in Rio de Janeiro (2010-2023): An analysis using the Joinpoint model.

Abstract

To analyze the time trend of reported tuberculosis cases in the pediatric population in Rio de Janeiro State from 2010 to 2023. Data on new tuberculosis cases were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify inflection points and segment the time series into periods with distinct incidence trends. These segments were then used to assess statistically significant differences in the distribution of sociodemographic, clinical, and outcome variables. The findings reveal significant fluctuations throughout the period, with a marked increase from 2020 to 2023, particularly among children under five years of age. During this period, a decrease in the Municipal Human Development Index and an increase in both infant mortality and the Gini index were also observed. Despite a decline in the number of reported cases, There was an upward trend in tuberculosis incidence among children and adolescents between 2020 to 2023 in Rio de Janeiro State, coinciding with a decline in development indicators. Although definitive causal relationships cannot be established, the observed patterns reinforce the need for robust epidemiological surveillance tailored to age-specific characteristics, as well as targeted interventions.