Exploring China's Clean Air Act and associated cardiovascular disease risk: a prospective, quasi-experimental, and causal inference modelling study.

Abstract

Substantial improvements in air quality have been recorded following the implementation of China's Clean Air Act (CCAA) in 2013. However, the association between CCAA implementation and individual-level cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk remains unclear. We aimed to examine the long-term association between CCAA implementation and individual-level predicted CVD risk. In this prospective, quasi-experimental study, we used data from the China Kadoorie Biobank, a prospective cohort study that recruited participants from five urban and five rural areas across China between 2004 and 2008, with three resurveys conducted after the baseline survey (in 2008, 2013-14, and 2020-21). We included 34 862 individuals (mean age 51·3 years) who participated in at least one resurvey and had no history of CVD at baseline. Participants were classified into intervention (n=25 497) and control (n=9365) groups based on the local government's targets for particulate matter reduction. We estimated the 10-year risk of incident CVD morbidity or mortality using a validated risk prediction model. We used a difference-in-difference model to assess the long-term association between CCAA implementation and predicted risk, with adjustments made for regional confounders and individual-level characteristics, including demographics, lifestyle factors, medical history, and indoor air pollution exposure. The relationship between changes in long-term exposure to PM_2·5, PM₁₀, and O₃ and predicted risk after CCAA implementation was analysed using a linear model. The estimated risk differences associated with air pollutant changes were estimated based on the magnitude of changes and their corresponding effect sizes. After the CCAA was implemented, PM_2·5 and PM₁₀ concentrations declined in both groups, but O₃ concentrations increased. The intervention group showed a 3·95% (95% CI 3·18-4·72%) lower increase in predicted risk than the control group, with larger estimated differences under stricter enforcement. Between 2013 and 2021, each 10 μg/m³ change in PM_2·5 concentration was positively associated with a 1·80 (1·34-2·27) percentage point change in predicted CVD risk, whereas each 10 μg/m³ change in PM₁₀ concentration was associated with a 1·24 (0·84-1·63) percentage point change and each 10 μg/m³ change in O₃ concentration with a 0·58 (0·33-0·83) percentage point change. Overall, the observed changes in air pollutants during the study period were associated with an average 6·6 percentage point reduction in predicted CVD risk. The CCAA and improved air quality were associated with a slower increase in predicted CVD risk, supporting the necessity for stricter, multipollutant air quality policies to maximise public health benefits. National Natural Science Foundation of China, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Noncommunicable Chronic Diseases-National Science and Technology Major Project, National Key R&D Program of China, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, and UK Wellcome Trust.