The recent enhancement of the surface melt over the Antarctic Peninsula dictated by thermodynamics.
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- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 42680738.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1038/s41467-026-76310-z.
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Abstract
Intense surface melt and subsequent meltwater ponding are the key triggers for the disintegration of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Although a long-term decline in AP surface melt has been evident since the early 1990s, episodes of intense surface melt events have frequently been reported in recent years. Here, using 1979-2023 daily surface melt rates from regional climate models, we show that this declining trend has reversed, with November-February surface melt increasing significantly by 3% year<sup>-1</sup> (p < 0.05) between 2009 and 2022. Decomposition of trends based on circulation classification indicates that changes in the frequency of atmospheric circulation patterns cannot account for this enhancement. Instead, the thermodynamics-linked to variations in the surface energy budget independent of atmospheric circulation contribute 80% of the positive trend in AP surface melt. Analysis of extreme surface melt events further supports the dominant thermodynamic contribution.