The impact of state- versus county-level mask mandates on economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, policy makers used mask mandates as a tool to signal that, due to the amount of virus circulating at the time, social behaviors might be risky. Because of the geographically specific nature of disease transmission information, these signals would be more informative in smaller geographic units. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of policy information revelation by quantifying the impact of state versus county mask mandates on economic activity. We constructed a longitudinal dataset of US counties from April to September 2020 including the period immediately surrounding a COVID-19 mask mandate policy. In our primary analysis, we used a regression discontinuity approach with economic activity measured as county-level cell phone mobility and credit card spending. We found that state mask mandates were associated with an increase in economic activity (coefficient = 1.045, 95% CI: 0.44,1.65) and spending per person (coefficient = $143, 95% CI: $102, $185). On the other hand, we found no statistically significant effects following county mask mandates. Using variation in the level of government enacting a policy, we find that mobility and spending are higher after a US state mask mandate than a county mandate, consistent with information revelation.