Cumulative Vulnerability to Particulate Matter and Incident Asthma: Joint Effects of Urbanicity, Poverty, and Age in a Nationwide Cohort.

Abstract

Long-term exposure to ambient fine and coarse particulate matter (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀) is a major risk factor for asthma development. However, how urbanicity, poverty, and age jointly modify this association and contribute to disparities in asthma incidence remains unclear. We conducted a nationwide retrospective cohort study of 8,252,498 adults in South Korea using the Korean National Health Insurance Service database. Health records were linked to 1km² resolution estimates of long-term PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ exposure. Asthma incidence was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for demographic, clinical, and environmental covariates. Stratified analyses were performed by age, Medical Aid status, and residential area. Long-term exposure to PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ was significantly associated with an increased risk of new-onset asthma. Each 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.33 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.32-1.34), while a comparable increase in PM₁₀ was associated with an HR of 1.38 (95% CI, 1.37-1.38). Stratified analyses demonstrated progressive risk amplification across age, Medical Aid status, and residential area, with HRs ranging from 1.16 (95% CI, 1.14-1.18) among younger adults without Medical Aid living in rural areas to 1.80 (95% CI, 1.66-1.94) among older adults and receiving Medical Aid residing in urban areas (p for interaction < 0.001). Long-term PM exposure significantly increased asthma risk, with the greatest disparities observed among socioeconomically disadvantaged older adults residing in urban areas. Urgent, targeted strategies are needed to mitigate the disproportionate asthma burden attributable to these inequities.