Behavioral economic cannabis demand following recreational cannabis legalization: Six-year findings from an observational cohort study of community adults in Canada.

Coelho, Sophie G; Keough, Matthew T; MacKillop, James · Drug Alcohol Depend · 2026

prospective_cohort · Level II

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Abstract

Cannabis demand, a behavioural economic measure of cannabis relative reinforcing value (i.e., incentive salience), is robustly associated with cannabis involvement. Recreational cannabis legalization in Canada has shifted the availability and social acceptability of cannabis, potentially altering its reinforcing value. Though prior studies have examined legalization-related changes in cannabis use and misuse, none have examined changes in cannabis demand. Thus, we investigated intraindividual changes in cannabis demand over the six years following legalization, overall and moderated by pre-legalization cannabis use frequency, sex, and age, predicting an increase in reinforcing value in the post-legalization period. Community adults (n = 1103) completed measures of cannabis demand in 14 assessment waves (median retention = 86.86%) from September 2018 to April 2025. Multilevel growth models indicated that, on average, all cannabis demand indices significantly decreased over time, contrary to hypotheses, and diverging from cannabis consumption itself, which was relatively stable. Trajectories systematically differed based on pre-legalization cannabis use frequency and sex. Participants who were actively using cannabis pre-legalization exhibited declining cannabis demand over time, with steeper declines corresponding to more frequent pre-legalization cannabis use, whereas those not using cannabis pre-legalization exhibited stable or increasing cannabis demand. Males exhibited steeper decline in selected cannabis demand indices (intensity, O<sub>max</sub>, breakpoint) relative to female participants. These results reveal that Canadian recreational cannabis legalization was associated with overall declines in the reinforcing value of cannabis, even as actual cannabis use frequency remained relatively stable. These findings suggest that increased cannabis availability following legalization may have led to seemingly positive within-person shifts, at least within a sample of nonclinical community adults.