The effect of the China-Thailand railway on Thailand's trade with China Guangxi Province.

Abstract

This study assesses how the China-Thailand Railway may reshape Thailand's trade with Guangxi by altering the relative competitiveness of road, rail, and sea freight. A mixed-methods framework is employed, combining literature and secondary data with expert interviews, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multinomial Logit model of freight mode choice, and a SWOT analysis. Eight experts from customs, academia, logistics enterprises, trading companies, and railway construction evaluate six route- choice criteria: transportation time, transportation cost, convenience, safety, punctuality, and transportation capacity. AHP results show that cost and time jointly account for about 62% of decision weight, with capacity and punctuality forming a second tier. Using these weights and calibrated attributes, the Logit model estimates that, under a plausible operating scenario, sea, rail, and road would capture roughly 37.0%, 33.2% and 29.8% of freight, respectively. The findings indicate that the China-Thailand Railway can become a strong competitor to existing modes and, under appropriate policy and operational conditions, support more efficient, reliable, and sustainable Thailand-Guangxi trade.