Shot-location polarization and post-2018 pace stabilization in the NBA: Evidence from 21 seasons of team and shot-coordinate data (2004-2025).

Abstract

NBA offenses increasingly reflect a "space-and-pace" approach, yet it remains unclear whether recent tempo changes primarily reflect long-run strategic adaptation or the 2018-19 14-second offensive-rebound shot-clock reset. We combined team-season metrics with shot-location data from the NBA Stats API across 21 seasons (2004-05-2024-25; > 420,000 field-goal attempts). Analyses included spatial heatmaps and a Spatial Allocation Index (SAI), segmented regression for league Pace, and multivariate OLS models for Offensive Rating (ORtg). Heatmaps showed a substantial reduction in mid-range attempts and greater concentration at the rim and beyond the arc; SAI increased from 58.98% to 69.99%. Segmented regression identified a marked change around 2018-19, with an immediate increase in Pace and a post-2018 trend that flattened and became slightly negative (pre-2018 slope ≈ 0.44 possessions/season; post-2018 net slope ≈ -0.26). Turnover percentage declined despite higher tempo (p < 0.001). The 2018-19 reset aligned with a step change in tempo, while subsequent seasons show consolidation rather than continued acceleration. Over the longer run, shot allocation became increasingly concentrated at the rim and from three-point range, indicating co-evolution in tempo and shot-location strategy.