Probability of adverse events that have not yet occurred: a statistical reminder.
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- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 7663258.
- Also identified by PMC identifier 2550668.
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Abstract
The probability of adverse and undesirable events during and after operations that have not yet occurred in a finite number of patients (n) can be estimated with Hanley's simple formula, which gives the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval of the probability of such an event: upper limit of 95% confidence interval = maximum risk = 3/n (for n > 30). Doctors and surgeons should keep this simple rule in mind when complication rates of zero are reported in the literature and when they have not (yet) experienced a disastrous complication in a procedure.
Medical subject headings
- Intraoperative Complications
- Probability