Serologically active clinically quiescent systemic lupus erythematosus--predictors of clinical flares.

Abstract

To identify the frequency of serologic activity in the face of clinical quiescence in a large cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) followed prospectively in a single center. In a prospective cohort study, patients serologically active but clinically quiescent (SACQ) in 3 consecutive clinic visits were analyzed for the development of a clinical flare over the subsequent year and were evaluated for predictive factors for flare before and during their SACQ period. Forty-six episodes of SACQ went on to clinical flare within one year while 60 did not. No predictive factors for flare were found either during or before the SACQ period. A significant population of patients with SLE are SACQ and must be followed over time and treated only on the basis of clinical criteria.