Sexual behavior and exposure to HIV infection: estimates from a general-population risk index.

Abstract

The spread of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the general population has been a much debated topic in the mass media. The aim of this study was to create an approach to estimating the risk of exposure to HIV resulting from sexual behaviors. A theoretical estimate was applied to data obtained from a large-scale risk factor survey carried out in Britain. An HIV infection-exposure risk index was constructed by ranking different sex-related categorizations derived from variables in the survey. The risk index involved a Delphi-based assessment of self-reported behavioral factors associated with HIV exposure and subsequent transmission. Roughly 85% of the adult population aged 18 to 50 were estimated to be at some risk for behavioral exposure to HIV virus with regard to reported sexual behavior. Over time, those who could be considered at no risk have declined as a proportion of the population. The estimates appear to refute commonplace assertions that exposure to HIV through sexual behavior is not a problem for general populations.