Predictability of North Atlantic Multidecadal Climate Variability.

Abstract

Atmospheric weather systems become unpredictable beyond a few weeks, but climate variations can be predictable over much longer periods because of the coupling of the ocean and atmosphere. With the use of a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model, it is shown that the North Atlantic may have climatic predictability on the order of a decade or longer. These results suggest that variations of the dominant multidecadal sea surface temperature patterns in the North Atlantic, which have been associated with changes in climate over Eurasia, can be predicted if an adequate and sustainable system for monitoring the Atlantic Ocean exists.