Risk of persistent or recurrent and intractable upper gastrointestinal bleeding in the era of therapeutic endoscopy.

Abstract

Patients who present to the emergency department with upper gastrointestinal bleeding can have persistent or recurrent (further) bleeding or self-limited bleeding. We performed a study to determine the frequency, risks factors, and impact on outcome of further bleeding. Clinical predictors of further bleeding were retrospectively identified in 137 consecutive patients presenting to our institution with upper gastrointestinal bleeding in 1994-1995. Persistent or recurrent bleeding occurred in 30.7% of the cases, bleeding intractable to endoscopic therapy occurred in 15.3%. Hematemesis (odds ratio [OR] 5.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.4-13.1, p = 0.0001) and a initial hemoglobin (OR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.7-0.96; p = 0.01) were independent risk factors for persistent or recurrent bleeding, whereas liver disease (OR, 6.0; 95% CI, 2.0-18.4; p = 0.002) and hematemesis were independent risk factors for intractable bleeding. The mortality rate was 14.3 and 1%, respectively, in patients with and without further bleeding. In patients who did not present with hematemesis, liver disease, coagulopathy, hypotension, and initial hemoglobin < 11 g/dl, the frequency of further bleeding and mortality was 0%. Persistent, recurrent, and intractable bleeding occurs in a substantial proportion of patients admitted with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The risk of further bleeding can be estimated on the basis of clinical presentation. Further bleeding is associated with a worse outcome.