Interval breast cancers in an Australian mammographic screening program.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence of interval cancers which occurred in the first 12 months after mammographic screening at a mammographic screening service. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of data obtained by crossmatching the screening Service and the New South Wales Central Cancer Registry databases. SETTING: The Central & Eastern Sydney Service of BreastScreen NSW. PARTICIPANTS: Women aged 40-69 years at first screen, who attended for their first or second screen between 1 March 1988 and 31 December 1992. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Interval-cancer rates per 10000 screens and as a proportion of the underlying incidence of breast cancer (as estimated by the underlying rate in the total NSW population). RESULTS: The 12-month interval-cancer incidence per 10000 screens was 4.17 for the 40-49 years age group (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35-9.73) and 4.64 for the 50-69 years age group (95% CI, 2.47-7.94). Proportional incidence rates were 30.1% for the 40-49 years age group (95% CI, 9.8-70.3) and 22% for the 50-69 years age group (95% CI, 11.7-37.7). There was no significant difference between the proportional incidence rate for the 50-69 years age group for the Central & Eastern Sydney Service and those of major successful overseas screening trials. CONCLUSION: Screening quality was acceptable and should result in a significant mortality reduction in the screened population. Given the small number of cancers involved, comparison of interval-cancer statistics of mammographic screening programs with trials requires age-specific or age-adjusted data, and consideration of confidence intervals of both program and trial data.