Predicting survival in malignant skin melanoma using Bayesian networks automatically induced by genetic algorithms. An empirical comparison between different approaches.

Abstract

In this work we introduce a methodology based on genetic algorithms for the automatic induction of Bayesian networks from a file containing cases and variables related to the problem. The structure is learned by applying three different methods: The Cooper and Herskovits metric for a general Bayesian network, the Markov blanket approach and the relaxed Markov blanket method. The methodologies are applied to the problem of predicting survival of people after 1, 3 and 5 years of being diagnosed as having malignant skin melanoma. The accuracy of the obtained models, measured in terms of the percentage of well-classified subjects, is compared to that obtained by the so-called Naive-Bayes. In the four approaches, the estimation of the model accuracy is obtained from the 10-fold cross-validation method.